Risk Intelligence insights
Risk Intelligence’s highly experienced security risk analysts are frequently featured in the media as journalists report on the maritime and land-based security threats to supply chain and logistics operations across the world. Here, we feature the articles published in news and industry media world wide, and add shorter analyst briefings on global hotspots for piracy attacks, crime and theft, insurgency, war risk and other security risks on land, at sea and in ports.
The UK introduced new physical checks for ‘medium’ and ‘high-risk’ animal and plant products in April 2024, as part of the post-Brexit Border Target Operating Model.
However, glitches and delays in Dover and at the Channel Tunnel have raised concerns about the impact of these procedures on road transport operations as the country continues to be one of the primary European cargo crime hotspots.
In late February 2024, Haiti’s ongoing multidimensional crisis escalated into widespread gang violence, rendering institutions non-functional and causing an acute humanitarian crisis.
Shipping operations in Port-au-Prince have been severely disrupted, with attacks on port infrastructure and ships leading to the repeated suspension of operations at different facilities, limiting aid delivery and further aggravating the situation.
The release of the bulk carrier ABDULLAH for a claimed ransom of $5 million shows the potential rewards for Somali pirates. At the same time, naval activity off Somalia remains robust, and future pirate operations will likely be making their own risk-reward calculations.
The recent hijackings of the bulk carriers RUEN and ABDULLAH and their detention off the Somali coast has been reminiscent of the Indian Ocean piracy threat of old.
India’s commissioning of its new base, INS Jatuyu, is vital for the Indian Ocean region, reinforcing its efforts in anti-piracy in the Western Arabian Sea.
The Indian Navy took a big step towards strengthening its operational capabilities with the recent commissioning of its new base, INS Jatayu, located on Minicoy Island in Lakshadweep off India’s west coast. This move aims to strengthen the Indian Navy’s position within the Lakshadweep archipelago and expand its operational reach, capacity building, and support within the area.
Although international attention and the shipping industry are focused on the situation in the Red Sea, the resurgence of piracy in the Indian Ocean since November 2023 is also a rising concern that should not be overlooked.
While the first attacks were often linked to fishing conflicts in Somali waters, several attacks have also targeted commercial vessels on the high seas, as shown by the case of the RUEN and the ABDULLAH.
Cargo vessel operators have encountered blatantly corrupt activities at ports throughout the world. For decades the activity continued unabated until 2011 when the UK Bribery Act came into force and its far-reaching consequences well beyond the United Kingdom came to light.
The UK Bribery Act was not the only corruption-fighting legislation to come on the scene. Once these new laws got the attention of global businesses, not only were concerns raised regarding facilitation payments, but every aspect of corporate entertainment, including the provision of meals and other client perks, came under scrutiny in an effort to reduce exposure to the penalties presented by the new and far-reaching laws
Shipping operations in the northern Black Sea has been hampered by local weather conditions during the winter months. This has affected military operations as well, which poses an interesting question: has the winter weather decreased the security threats to shipping?
The full year of 2023 saw a nearly 17% increase in the number of recorded incidents in the Black Sea compared with 2022.
Evidence collected by the Risk Intelligence team on the LandRisk Logistics System shows a 45% rise in activism incidents affecting the supply chain in 2023 compared to the previous year. Reflecting on those incidents highlights the vulnerability of businesses unprepared for potential outbreaks of social and political discontent.
2023 was a year of severe social unrest, marked by large protest movements, riots, wide-reaching strike actions and social disobedience.
Ethiopia’s deal with Somaliland for maritime access to the Gulf of Aden is already causing regional ripples and Somalia’s opposition is sparking regional concerns.
Ethiopia recently announced it had signed an agreement with Somaliland for the lease of Berbera port. So far, it appears the terms include a 20-year lease of a several kilometres long stretch of coast around Berbera port, the freedom to engage in economic activity in that zone, and the presence of an Ethiopian military component around the port.
Last week, the spotlight was on Northern Europe's cross-border infrastructure in a shifting geopolitical landscape during the STRING and Region Skåne event at Connecting Europe Days in Brussels. With a focus on the Helsingør-Helsingborg fixed link and the Oslo-Göteborg railway stretch, the importance of these connections was underscored.
Hans Tino Hansen, CEO of Risk Intelligence, along with other specialists, added invaluable insights during the panel discussion, emphasising the intersection of civilian and military infrastructure needs.
Whilst the question of irregular migration, which continues to lie at the heart of European politics, overwhelmingly concentrates on maritime crossings of the Mediterranean Sea and the English Channel, recent data highlights a slow yet significant resurgence of enterprises placing road freight transport at the centre of their strategies.
This article delves into recent numbers, trends, and incidents to explain why irregular migration and smuggling remain a security threat to logistics operations.
Cargo theft criminals have been keeping the LandRisk Team busy during Q4 this year. Of particular interest is the presence of organised criminal groups (OCGs) carrying out cargo thefts on main logistics routes in Germany. OCGs present a significant threat to logistics operators as when they do strike the impact is often much higher due to the increased level of confidence, capability and resources these groups typically employ.
The A-1 motorway between Bremen and Hamburg has been hit particularly hard. On the evening of the 5th November 67 trucks had their trailers slashed in incidents at the Otsetal South, Grundbergsee South and Hatzte service/rest areas.
As naval drones and drone swarms redefine maritime strategies, a deeper analysis reveals how they challenge traditional naval operations and pave the way for innovative tactics in an increasingly complex and contested seascape.
In the ever-evolving arena of naval warfare, a transformation of profound significance is underway. This is evident in the use of smaller unmanned surface vessels (USVs), which has risen from smaller scale use in Yemen in the mid-2010s, to a veritable Ukrainian USV naval programme operating at full scale in 2023.
As Russia attempts to find ways to alleviate the impact of Western sanctions, and finding alternative trading partners and trade routes, China has seized the opportunity and is increasingly asserting itself on the Northern Sea Route. While highlighting the inequalities of the Russian-Chinese relationship, this will also have an impact on the wider geopolitical balance of power.
As global warming makes the Arctic's Northern Sea Route (NSR) more accessible, a complex geopolitical scenario is unfolding, with China taking the lead. Despite Russia's historical dominance over the NSR, it is now being challenged by China's robust shipbuilding industry and its aggressive Arctic strategies.
As technology advances, so does the potential for its misuse. Large language machines (LLMs) and image generators have become extremely popular, seemingly overnight, with the launch of ChatGPT 3 in November 2022. Since then, companies and individuals have scrambled to figure out uses for them for a variety of purposes or sectors.
LLMs continue to be upgraded and refined by their creators, and Adobe recently released their “Generative Fill”- AL tool for Photoshop, highlighting how the tech companies are competing fiercely to have the best possible software. However, these tools also have the potential to be used for malicious purposes, particularly in relation to hybrid threats.
The recent Saudi-Iranian agreement to mend diplomatic relations will likely improve maritime security at a high level by reducing a source of regional tension. However, the transactional nature of the agreement – where everything in the future is negotiable – leaves much room for regional proxy forces to continue to act. As well, the other potential flashpoint, between Iran and Israel, remains unresolved.
The Saudi-Iranian deal announced by China carries significant implications, although at this stage these remain mostly symbolic, and might mean more for Chinese-US relations than for the two middle-eastern rivals.
While hybrid threats are as old as war itself, the emerging threat from Russian aggression and rise of China has once again made hybrid threats relevant to consider even for private companies.
Hybrid threats refer to a combination of conventional and non-conventional tactics that adversaries use to achieve their objectives. These threats can originate from a wide range of actors, including state-sponsored groups, criminal organizations, or even lone individuals.
This article looks at how intelligence analysts generally and in Risk Intelligence looked at Russian and Ukrainian military capability prior to the invasion of Ukraine, how we were wrong, and how we should learn of our mistakes.
The article in Washington Post “Road to war: U.S. struggled to convince allies, and Zelensky, of risk of invasion” by Karen de Young explains the gradual increase in US intelligence, assessment, and conclusions on Russian plans to attack Ukraine and how the US intelligence world went from finding an invasion of Ukraine unlikely to becoming increasingly likely and how difficult it was to convince allies and Ukraine that an invasion was coming.
Hans Tino Hansen, CEO of Risk Intelligence, recently provided valuable insights to The Loadstar during an interview regarding piracy activities off the coast of Somalia and the potential resurgence of piracy in the region.
The original release date of the article was on 16 April 2024, as published by The Loadstar.
Louis Borer, Senior Analyst at Risk Intelligence, recently shared insights with EL PAIS in an interview about the resurgence of Somali pirates in the Indian Ocean amidst the turmoil caused by disrupted maritime traffic from Houthi attacks in the Red Sea.
The original release date of the article was on 11 April 2024, as published by EL PAIS.
Louis Borer, Senior Analyst at Risk Intelligence, shares insights on the pressing issue of corruption and drug trafficking in European ports in a recent interview with The Economist.
The original release date of the article was on 8 April 2024, as published by The Economist.
Louis Borer, Senior Analyst of Risk Intelligence, was recently interviewed to provide insights on various maritime threats for an article and overview map produced by Le Monde's cartography department.
The original release date of the article was on 2 March 2024, as published by Le Monde.
In a recent interview with France 24, Hans Tino Hansen, CEO of Risk Intelligence, addresses the growing concerns surrounding a potential resurgence of piracy along the Somali coast.
The original release date of the article was on 14 February 2024, as published by France 24.
The article discusses a recent increase in pirate activity off the coast of Somalia. The successful hijacking of a cargo vessel in December 2023 marked the first such incident by Somali pirates since 2017.
In a recent interview with the Danish daily, Berlingske Tidende, Hans Tino Hansen, the CEO of Risk Intelligence, provides insights into the impact of international coalition airstrikes on Houthi targets in Yemen, emphasising the need for negotiations to achieve a comprehensive solution.
The original release date of the article was on 04 February 2024, as published by Berlingske.
The article discusses the recent airstrikes by the United States and Britain on 30 Houthi targets in Yemen, aiming to curb the group's impact on global trade.
Louis Borer, Senior Analyst of Risk Intelligence, delved into the unfolding developments in the Western Indian Ocean and the current situation in the Red Sea in an interview with RFI. Louis Borer expressed concerns regarding the recent increase in pirate activities off the coast of Somalia.
The original release date of the article was on 30 January 2024, as published by RFI.
In a recent interview with journalist Vemund Sveen Finstad from Aftenposten, Hans Tino Hansen, the CEO of Risk Intelligence, shared insights into the escalating crisis in the Red Sea. As tensions rise, Hansen sheds light on the defensive strategies employed by the coalition forces, emphasizing the importance of risk assessments for shipping companies.
The original release date of the article was on 22 December 2023, as published by Aftenposten.
Jeanne Albin, LandRisk Security Specialist and Steve Bacot, LandRisk Manager recently contributed to TAPA EMEA with an article highlighting the importance of cargo theft crimes, which continue to pose a significant threat to the global supply chain.
Cargo theft is a major concern for global supply chains as it has the potential to greatly impact companies' reputations and financial performance. The industry is working to address this by developing preventive technologies, establishing security standards, and increasing awareness. Limited security budgets and a lack of secure truck parking can pose obstacles to progress.